Tax day — which is today, in case you forgot — is the day to hate the government the most. Which means it’s also a good time to go ahead and hop online and blow off some steam by playing online poker.

Until today anyway — ]]>

Tax day — which is today, in case you forgot — is the day to hate the government the most. Which means it’s also a good time to go ahead and hop online and blow off some steam by playing online poker.

Until today anyway — the government just seized five online poker domains, including UB.com, PokerStars.com, and FullTiltPoker.com and charged the guys who run three companies (Full Tilt Poker, Pokers Stars and Absolute Poker) with fraud.

“As charged, these defendants concocted an elaborate criminal fraud scheme, alternately tricking some U.S. banks and effectively bribing others to assure the continued flow of billions in illegal gambling profits,” said Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara. “Moreover, as we allege, in their zeal to circumvent the gambling laws, the defendants also engaged in massive money laundering and bank fraud. Foreign firms that choose to operate in the United States are not free to flout the laws they don’t like simply because they can’t bear to be parted from their profits.”

Sigh. Should we be excited, the government’s spending money chasing down people who are robbing idiots out of the money they’re handing to the internet in order to play a game of chance?

I say no, in the same way that no one could have possibly been excited about the outcome of the Barry Bonds trial — there’s a massive disagreement in Washington, D.C. right now about how to balance the budget. This exists because our government is in a whole heap-load of debt.

There’d still be a problem budgeting if we weren’t in debt, of course, but things become much more contentious when you don’t have enough money. And one of the reasons we don’t have enough money is that we’re throwing piles of it away at things that the people of America don’t give two craps about.

To wit: the guys who ran Wall Street into the ground weren’t being pursued for “fraud,” or at least not like this. They were given golden parachutes with which to glide over foreclosed homes and poop nickels on our heads just for fun.

Also: the Bonds thing. TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS were spent chasing down an obvious steroid user in an attempt to nail him for perjury, only to see him get “busted” on obstruction of justice (don’t even get me started on how ridiculous this is — he just didn’t answer a question directly).

Fraud’s no good and I’m all for the government stopping the people who defrauding people. But this is ONLINE GAMBLING. What was anyone who engaged in this expecting? If you hop online and lose enough money on online blackjack that you can’t afford to pay your mortgage this month, that’s not you getting defrauded by some rich jerk who happens to trade on one of society’s favorite vices, that’s just Darwinism taking hold.

And of course this all happens on the day in which many of us spend freaking out about money owed to the government. Money which, I’m sure, they’ll find a fantastic and totally efficient use for spending.

DOJ Charges Three Major Online Poker Sites With Fraud – [Bluff Magazine]

A team of seven IT coworkers won the New York State Mega Millions jackpot totally $319 million. Awesome for them. But the depressing part? There were usually eight coworkers who pooled money together for lottery tickets. And one opted to sit this one out. According to ]]>

A team of seven IT coworkers won the New York State Mega Millions jackpot totally $319 million. Awesome for them. But the depressing part? There were usually eight coworkers who pooled money together for lottery tickets. And one opted to sit this one out.

According to a New York Post interview with the owner of the Albany deli who sold the winning lottery ticket, when the coworkers went around the office went around asking who wanted into the pool, the unlucky eighth man (whose identity is unknown) told them he was going to pass this time around since he “wasn’t feeling lucky.”

The deli owner, Jill Cook, says the entire IT team of new lottery winners came into her shop for lunch daily though, as far as she knew, the number of players in the pool could vary wildly from week to week.

Reports have said that the IT workers have yet to show up to work — though it’s still unclear if they just deserted their jobs — after winning the enormous jackpot.

The unlucky would-be pool participant stood to take home about $16 million after taxes had he chipped in.

Money isn’t everything in life, they say. And that’s true. Money is nothing without the other things that come with it like time to enjoy it and love and blah blah. That said, I’d have to say that having $16 million in the bank and banging out dozens of unscrupulous women on my new yacht would probably be better than working in IT in Albany while all your friends are gone. Hell, getting $20 and a cab ride would be better than living in Albany. Have you ever been there? There’s more joy and promise in snuff films than there are in that city.

Worker skips office Mega pool, loses share of $319M [NY Post]

When attempting to cross the border after a night at the casino, a man lied about his winnings and tried to sneak too much across the US-Canada border. Now all his $20,000 have been seized. Authorities said that border agents seized $19,910 from two men who ]]>

When attempting to cross the border after a night at the casino, a man lied about his winnings and tried to sneak too much across the US-Canada border. Now all his $20,000 have been seized.

Authorities said that border agents seized $19,910 from two men who lied about the amount they won to avoid the $10,000 currency reporting requirement at the border.

The men claimed that one of them won $9,400 and the other won $9,500. Border agents pulled them over and interrogated them separately.

When split up, both men individually fessed up with the passenger admitting he was carrying the driver’s winnings and the driver revealing that he won $40,000 — $20,000 of which was deposited at the casino — and split the rest with his friend to get under the $10,000 threshold.

The dumbest part: By lying, the men will now have their money seized until they appeal. However, if they had been honest about the amount they won, all they would have had to do was fill out a form and move on with all the cash.

Let that be a lesson to all of you out there: The next time you’re carrying tens of thousand dollars after a lucky day at a casino, make sure you be completely honest when crossing the Canadian border. Since this is a situation I assume everyone ends up in at some point in their lives.

Then again, maybe the driver just hated filling out forms. I always get confused filling out forms, so I can totally relate. That’s how I ended up getting my testicles removed instead of getting my oil changed at Jiffy Lube. There are just so many things to fill out, who could possibly keep track?

Birmingham man wins $20K at casino, loses it in Windsor tunnel seizure [Detroit Free Press]

In perhaps one of the better gambling stories you’ll ever hear, a Delaware man is one game away from winning a 16-game NFL parlay. The man bet $5 dollars and if somehow the 49ers can cover the spread against the Eagles, he’ll win 100,000 dollars. Talk ]]>

In perhaps one of the better gambling stories you’ll ever hear, a Delaware man is one game away from winning a 16-game NFL parlay. The man bet $5 dollars and if somehow the 49ers can cover the spread against the Eagles, he’ll win 100,000 dollars. Talk about return on investment.

If this bettor knows what is going on, he or she can fly to Nevada, bet $50,000 in real money on the Eagles plus-3 and be ensured to win at least $50,000. Or the bettor can do something similar in Delaware by betting a series of four three-team parlay cards taking both sides of any two games and the Eagles (who are 3 1/2-point underdogs on the new Delaware parlay cards) on all four cards. The payout would be a little less in Delaware because of the parlay-card odds.

What makes this even better for this player is he has a real chance to win both bets.

So who wants to lend this mysterious unknown bettor some money? Perhaps Lenny Dykstra could offer a helping hand?

Delaware bettor in a no-lose situation [Philly.com]

Colleges don’t win football, catches win football. Tim Brown knows his stuff and picks his games like it’s going out of style. Next up: LSU vs Alabama in Week 10…

SPONSORED POST

Inside the Lines’ Rod Woodson and Kenyon Rasheed discuss the upcoming Packers vs. Vikings game.

SPONSORED POST

Inside the Lines’ Tim Brown shares his expectations and expert picks for NCAA Week 8 game, BYU vs TCU.

Poker Joker is based upon Texas Hold’em. Use the mouse or arrow keys to select three extra cards from the falling rows. The quicker you select a winning hand, the higher your winnings will be.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is already prepared to bank off the success of its groundbreaking UFC 100 with another exciting event. UFC 101 will take place August 8, 2009 at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The card is set ]]>

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is already prepared to bank off the success of its groundbreaking UFC 100 with another exciting event. UFC 101 will take place August 8, 2009 at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The card is set and the night promises to full of action.

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino

The battle between Josh Neer and Kurt Pellegrino should turn out to be an all out war. These two were originally scheduled to lock horns at UFC Fight Night 19 but that was pushed back to the UFC 100 event. Both are coming off impressive victories at UFC Fight Night 17 back in February so it is no surprise they are battling here. Neer is going to have to bring everything he’s got but it won’t be enough. Look for Pellegrino to pull out a win over the surging Neer and reestablish himself as a force to be reckoned with. Live UFC Odds

Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida

Middleweights will clash win TUF 3 Season champ Kendall Grove squares off against veteran grappler Ricardo Almedia. Grove has had a tough road after winning TUF back in 2006, suffering back to back knockout losses to Patrick Cote and Jorge Rivera. He finally got back on track with two straight wins over Evan Tanner and Jason Day. Almeida is coming off a win against Matt Horwich at UFN 18 after a near four-year absence. Though some may argue that he’s a bit rusty, Ricardo is still in great shape and his experience should be enough to pull out a decision. Live UFC Odds

Johnny Hendricks vs. Amir Sadollah

TUF Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah will step into the Octagon for the first time since winning the MMA reality show competition. Unfortunately, he has been plagued with injuries since the submission victory over CB Dolloway at TUF 7, missing out on fights that could have raised his status in UFC. Sadollah will definitely need to be 100% when he enters the cage with Hendricks, a former WEC fighter who has looked impressive in a couple of UFC wins. Sadollah’s got a lot of heart but that won’t do him much good after he suffers a knockout at the fast hands of Hendricks. Live UFC Odds

Anderson Silva vs. Forest Griffin

UFC Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva returns in hopes of better competition against former Light Heavyweight title holder Forest Griffin. Silva is looking to reassert himself as a dominant fighter, coming off two less than impressive victories over Patrick Cote and Thales Leites, which gave him a UFC record nine consecutive victories. Griffin, light heavyweight winner of the first TUF season, is coming off an injury and loss suffered against Rashad Evans at UFC 92. Unfortunately, he has to return against a fierce Brazilian striker who probably won’t be in a good mood come August 8. Forest will probably make it interesting but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t even make it out the second round. Live UFC Odds

B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian

The main event of the evening pits UFC Lightweight Champion B.J. Penn against an up and coming challenger in Kenny Florian. Admittedly a B.J. Penn fan, Florian looks forward to testing his skills against arguably the greatest lightweight in the world. A UFC vet and master of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Penn is heavily favored but don’t expect him to win this one with ease. Florian is an all-around MMA fighter with a diverse arsenal of kickboxing skills. This one is going to be good but look for B.J. to edge out a decision. Live UFC Odds

by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science

First of all, if you’re not going to sweat the $50 to watch UFC 100 live on your TV set or—the more likely scenario with the EC readership—you’re incarcerated and can’t get PPVs in ]]>

by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science

First of all, if you’re not going to sweat the $50 to watch UFC 100 live on your TV set or—the more likely scenario with the EC readership—you’re incarcerated and can’t get PPVs in prison make sure to follow the round by round coverage UFC 100 LIVE AT THE SAVAGE SCIENCE.

Lines are from the highly respected Internet sports book Sports-1.

FRANK MIR VS. BROCK LESNAR

In the main event gotta go with the value on Frank Mir. I know a guy who is an amateur MMA fighter in Vegas and trains at Striking Unlimited where Mir trains. He says that Mir is in *sick* shape and will destroy Lesnar. Not sure about that, but his BJJ skills are off the charts. Lesnar will probably take him down and put him on his back again. Problem is that Mir fights better off his back than any heavyweight in the world, and maybe any *fighter* in the world with the exception of Shinya Aoki. You might be able to find a price on ‘Mir inside the distance’ and that has a lot of interest as well. Mir is just such a smart fighter I’m thinking that he’ll wait for Lesnar to make a mistake and catch him in some submission that Brock has never seen.

Lesnar is a physical freak of nature and no doubt he’s worked hard on his submission defense in preparation for this fight. No matter how hard he’s worked, however, he won’t be prepared for all of the tricks a BJJ black belt like Mir can throw at him.

FRANK MIR +180 OVER BROCK LESNAR

GEORGES ST. PIERRE VS. THIAGO ALVES

Now that Anderson Silva has been exposed as more ‘sizzle’ than ‘steak’, you can make a good case that Georges St. Pierre is the best ‘pound for pound’ fighter in the sport. Actually, he’s been the best ‘PFP’ in my opinion for quite some time but since much of the MMA media swallows anything that Dana White says hook, line and sinker he hasn’t received the credit he’s deserved. Ironically, now that the rest of the sport is waking up and giving GSP his ‘pound for pound’ props he may have some competition from the petulant but brutally talented Nick Diaz.

Alves is no joke, and trains with American Top Team in Florida. On paper, you could argue that Alves is a good value at +260 but I just can’t pull the trigger on him against GSP. Alves has lost three times to mid level opposition, all three coming by stoppage (2 submission, 1 KO). While I don’t have any interest in laying -320 on GSP, Alves looks to me like a fighter that isn’t quite ready to make the huge leap to championship level competition. There have also been questions about Alves’ conditioning and he’s struggled in the past to make weight. He missed the cut off against Matt Hughes and earlier in his career tested positive for a banned diuretic which indicates a bit of last minute desperation in his weight cut. That’s a huge problem here since he’ll be going five rounds against one of the best conditioned athletes of any sort walking the face of the earth. GSP wins it, but can’t get involved at the price.

MICHAEL BISPING VS. DAN HENDERSON

Two schools of thought here—either Bisping will handle the much older Henderson, or else the accomplished vet Henderson will expose Bisping. While I’m not sure which one will transpire, I do know that this is a much closer fight than the line indicates. This is a classic value play, where you’ve got an opportunity to take one side of a ‘coin flip’ at a preferential price.

MICHAEL BISPING +175 OVER DAN HENDERSON

UNDERCARD:

Here’s the best value play on the undercard:

MAC DANZIG VS. JIM MILLER

Mac Danzig +160 is a good play. Miller has never impressed me much, while Danzig is off back to back losses and fighting for his professional life. He got caught in a submission by Josh Neer the last time out and has lost four of his L6 fights but aside from Neer (who is a very good fighter) it been top of the food chain competition–Clay Guida, Clay French (maybe he has a problem with guys named ‘Clay’?) and DREAM badass Hayato ‘Mach’ Sakurai.

MAC DANZIG +160 OVER JIM MILLER

And don’t miss our LIVE UFC 100 EVENT COVERAGE on Saturday night! It’s the best live fight narrative on the planet and only at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE.

Editor’s Note: There is also a great article on Brock Lesnar by Paul Heyman (yes, that Paul Heyman) that you should check out here.

CBK: FIU cuts six percent from budget, eliminates cheerleadingCBK: Jeff Jordan dropping basketball for Illinois for studiesMLB: Dave Stewart rips Canseco at reunion for 1989 A’sMLB: Jose Canseco responds to criticismMLB: Off-duty officer shoots two ]]>

CBK: FIU cuts six percent from budget, eliminates cheerleading
CBK: Jeff Jordan dropping basketball for Illinois for studies
MLB: Dave Stewart rips Canseco at reunion for 1989 A’s
MLB: Jose Canseco responds to criticism
MLB: Off-duty officer shoots two in lot after Angels game
TENNIS: Betting at Wimbledon picks up after injury mentioned
TENNIS: Navratilova sued by former partner
MMA: MMA a no-go in New York

on 205th recommends…

NFL: World’s saddest man pretends to be Tim Rattay on TwitterNFL: Jets to wear corporate patch on practice jerseysNFL: Cowboys heavy metal group lands record dealUFC: Lesnar says being “built like a black man” is reason for his ]]>

NFL: World’s saddest man pretends to be Tim Rattay on Twitter
NFL: Jets to wear corporate patch on practice jerseys
NFL: Cowboys heavy metal group lands record deal
UFC: Lesnar says being “built like a black man” is reason for his physique
SOCCER: Beckham wins damages over topless model slur
NBA: 2009 mock draft: Version 3.0
MLB: Ryne Sandberg says Sammy Sosa doesn’t belong in Hall
MLB: Obama to throw out first pitch at All-Star Game
GAMBLING: N.J. governor supports suit against sports betting ban

on 205th recommends…

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

10) Milton Bradley will assault a Cubs fan or sportswriter before the end of the year

9) The Mets will scapegoat a coach for the failures of their front office

8) The Angels’ Mike Scoscia ]]>

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

10) Milton Bradley will assault a Cubs fan or sportswriter before the end of the year

9) The Mets will scapegoat a coach for the failures of their front office

8) The Angels’ Mike Scoscia will play a highly-touted prospect for less than a week before giving the job back to the proven failure

7) The Dodgers will jerk around Matt Kemp, burn out their bullpen, have a nonsensical batting lineup and win the division going away

6) Manny Ramirez will kill the ball when he comes back, and any number of sports media apologists will forget all about his suspension

5) Three more guys will go on the Disabled List with a “stress” related ailment that you are not allowed to make fun of

4) An American League pitcher will get maimed in an inter-league game for the kind of activities that National League pitchers do every game

3) A Boston, New York or Philadelphia team will win or lose five or more games in a row, and be judged at length against historic failures and successes by print and radio media

2) More people than ever before will hate the All-Star Game’s Home Run Derby

1) There will be a Nationals or A’s home game, with a rain delay on a school night in the late season, that will be have less than 100 paying witnesses

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

10) You play in different leagues with the same guys, just so you can enjoy different rules

9) You actually draft individual defensive players, and sneer in private at everyone else who doesn’t

8) Your ]]>

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

10) You play in different leagues with the same guys, just so you can enjoy different rules

9) You actually draft individual defensive players, and sneer in private at everyone else who doesn’t

8) Your live draft includes trophies, a fog machine, entrance music and Board Babes (the latter mostly to distract the other owners and give you an edge)

7) Your “entry fee” is masking a significant gambling addiction

6) You already own an annual magazine

5) You are already trash-talking your fellow owners for their lack of draft preparation

4) You’re bent that Yahoo hasn’t opened registration yet

3) You can’t take a vacation on Labor Day Weekend, because that’s the best time to hold a draft

2) You read this entire list hoping against hope for just one good sleeper pick (Indy’s Anthony Gonzalez)

1) Having read this list, you want to be in my league

NFL: Favre family books rooms for Viking gameNFL: Sources: Favre a no-show, Vikes stop pursuitNFL: Vikings’ Childress says Favre has no deadlineNBA: Mansion for sale next to Dwight Howard and Chris DiMarcoNBA: Phil Jackson: Pau ]]>

NFL: Favre family books rooms for Viking game
NFL: Sources: Favre a no-show, Vikes stop pursuit
NFL: Vikings’ Childress says Favre has no deadline
NBA: Mansion for sale next to Dwight Howard and Chris DiMarco
NBA: Phil Jackson: Pau Gasol goaltended
MLB: Bonds’ wife files for legal separation
NASCAR: Jeremy Mayfield tested positive for methamphetamine
INDYCAR: Teammates Patrick, Andretti both deny rift
GAMBLING: Feds have frozen $30M of online poker winnings

on 205th recommends…

MLB: So far, Manny not making amends as Dodgers askedMLB: Jim Leyritz tells Miami Herald fatal crash wasn’t his faultNBA: Kobe Bryant, wife countersue former housekeeperNFL: Dallas Cowboys practice facility consultant was ex-convictNFL: Owens blames ]]>

MLB: So far, Manny not making amends as Dodgers asked
MLB: Jim Leyritz tells Miami Herald fatal crash wasn’t his fault
NBA: Kobe Bryant, wife countersue former housekeeper
NFL: Dallas Cowboys practice facility consultant was ex-convict
NFL: Owens blames Romo, Garrett for Dallas departure
NFL: Woman says she was raped at Jets DB’s home
PGA: Daly wears pink in honor of Amy Mickelson
MMA: Canseco strikes out in mixed martial arts debut
GAMBLING: Craps player sets record at NJ casino
SOCCER: Rangers fan mob beats Catholic man to death in No. Ireland

on 205th recommends…

by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science

This is part of a larger article that you can find at The Savage Science that explains a lot of theoretical considerations that come into play when handicapping MMA or, for that matter, any ]]>

by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science

This is part of a larger article that you can find at The Savage Science that explains a lot of theoretical considerations that come into play when handicapping MMA or, for that matter, any other sporting event. You really should head over and give it a read—you might actually learn something: UFC 98 Betting Preview @ The Savage Science.

Since we know that a lot of you on 205th magazine types just want our picks, here they are. Lines are from the highly respected Internet sports book

SEAN SHERK (-300) vs. FRANK EDGAR (+240)

This looks to be the biggest mismatch on the main card, and the line accurately reflects this. Edgar is a hard working young fighter from New Jersey—he’s a tough guy with some decent punching power and a charming personality that has quickly made him a fan favorite. In theory, he’s the kind of fighter we’d look to back as an underdog but this is a bad matchup for him. Sean ‘The Muscle Shark’ Sherk is simply a freak of nature. His workouts would be labeled ‘torture’ if held at Guantanamo Bay, and are even painful to watch on video. In a sport full of well conditioned badasses, Sherk may be the most insanely in shape badass of them all. Sherk’s age (35) would give us pause was it not for his insane conditioning regimen, and his experience gives him a huge edge. His only three losses are to Matt Hughes (in his prime), Georges St. Pierre and BJ Penn. His last four wins are against Tyson Griffin, Kenny Florian, Hermes Franca and Nick Diaz. Also of concern are Edgar’s comments that ‘he doesn’t know what kind of fight to expect’. You can be sure that Sherk knows what to expect.

Edgar is a nice kid who always has the proverbial ‘puncher’s chance’ but he’s in here against a fighter who has only been knocked out by BJ Penn and GSP. Sherk is just the tightly wound type of guy who’d you’d expect to roll with a nickname like ‘The Muscle Shark’ and almost certainly ‘impose his will’ on Edgar. Look for Sherk to take Edgar down early and often and maul his way to an easy decision. At the high price, however, I’m not really interested in getting involved from a wagering standpoint.

DAN MILLER (-200) vs. CHAEL SONNEN (+160)

We’ll take the dog price on our Portland, OR homeboy and Team Quest member Chael Sonnen. Biggest concern is the large amount of weight (36 pounds) that Sonnen had to lose to take this fight in a short amount of time. He was a late replacement for Yushin Okami, who was injured in training. Unless Sonnen looks like a walking dead man at the weigh in, we’ll gladly take the price with a tough veteran. All of the Team Quest guys—from Matt Lindland on down—are just freaks of nature, double tough and technically proficient. Like someone asked me at the Affliction: Day of Reckoning show “I’d ask Matt Lindland if he puts milk on the nails he eats for breakfast in the morning, but I’m afraid he’d think that I was calling him a pussy by suggesting that he just doesn’t eat them plain.” That’s the kind of environment Sonnen trains in. Sonnen lost his last fight to Brazilian Jiu Jitsu god Demien Maia, and there’s no shame in that as Maia may end up being the most formidable BJJ fighter in the sport’s history. Sonnen once KO’d SAVSCI favorite Tim Credeur on a BoDog Fight event, and you’ve got to be a tough dude to do that. Miller is a solid fighter, but he’s never faced anyone of Sonnen’s class.

CHAEL SONNEN +160 OVER DAN MILLER

DREW MCFEDRIES (+145) VS. XAVIER FOUPA-POKAM (-175)

Foupa-Pokam, who does have the cool nickname ‘Professor X’ was a late replacement for James Irvin. McFedries could be fighting for his UFC career, with two straight losses and four in his last six fights. Foupa-Pokam hasn’t shown much when he’s stepped up in class, and is off a loss to Denis Kang. Were the price higher, might have some interest in McFedries in a matchup of journeymen fighters but as it stands we’ll PASS.

MATT HUGHES (-260) VS. MATT SERRA (+210)

This matchup of aging fighters in the twilight of their career is interesting due to the personal animosity between the two. You can read more about that in ‘The MMA Professor’ Grady Roy’s preview of the matchup at SAVSCI. Hughes has lost two straight and three of his last four, though they were to opponents at the very top of the MMA foodchain—as in GSP twice and Thiago Alves. After each of his previous two losses, Hughes has seriously considered hanging it up and win or lose this is all but certain to be his last fight. That’s a good thing since he looked awful in losing to Thiago Alves, and reportedly suffered a torn MCL and a partially torn PCL in the loss. He never had surgery, but that might not be a good thing—Frank Shamrock suffered a similar injury awhile back, didn’t get surgery and it’s almost completely destroyed his ability to ‘shoot’ for takedowns. For a fighter like Hughes who needs to control his opponent on the ground to win, that can be a problem.

Serra, meanwhile, has had his own injury issues. He’s only fought once since his upset win over GSP in April 2007, that being a rematch loss to the French Canadian fighting machine a year later. He was destroyed by GSP in that fight, but given the reigning UFC welterweight champion’s ungodly form since losing the belt there’s no shame in that.

So let’s go back to the sports gambling theory lesson from the beginning of this article—at -260, theoretical break even is 72.2%. To put it another way, think of a hypothetical circumstance in which Hughes and Serra fight 100 times. Would Hughes prevail in 3/4 of those meetings? At this point in his career, it’s very doubtful. That’s a lot of money to lay against an aging, physically broken down fighter who has already been thinking of retirement.

Oddly, Serra’s injuries may have worked in his favor here—he’s likely in better shape physically simply because he hasn’t been fighting. He was pounded in his loss to GSP, but didn’t suffer any serious physical damage or reinjure his back. And as a BJJ specialist who earned his black belt under the legendary Renzo Gracie, there’s a lot of ways for him to win this fight. Should Hughes try to take him down and be unable to control Serra on the ground, it could be a made to order set up for a submission.

Ultimately, the crux of this handicap is that Hughes simply doesn’t justify his -260 price and you’ve got to take the dog based on the value alone. In this case, you’re getting a pretty good fighter in a decent situation for him to get the win.

MATT SERRA +210 OVER MATT HUGHES

LYOTO MACHIDA (-210) VS. RASHAD EVANS (+170)

This is a tough match to handicap, and serves as a good example of why just ‘picking the winner’ isn’t a sufficient reason to make a bet. From a value standpoint alone, you’ve got to look at the reigning UFC light heavyweight champ Evans. He’s undefeated, and has serious KO power as he demonstrated in beating Chuck Liddell to earn his title shot and in stopping Forrest Griffin to win the title. He’s got underrated wrestling skills, and is a very well rounded fighter. In theory, he’s the epitome of the ‘live dog’.

Machida, on the other hand, is a freak of nature. He possesses surprising power, and most significantly has so far proved to be impossible to hit. His unorthodox Shotokan karate based style is almost impossible to replicate in sparring, meaning that if Evans is to be the first to ‘figure him out’ it’ll be an uphill battle. It’s a similar situation to fighting Floyd Mayweather, Jr. in boxing—his opponents have repeatedly said that there’s simply no one they can spar with to prepare properly for his skill set. Machida is very likely the same type of opponent.

Long story short, the value suggests a play on Evans but I can’t pull the trigger on it because my analysis of the fight suggests that Machida will win. In other words, there’s no option but to PASS.

UNDERCARD:

The best bet of the whole event is very likely on the undercard, but you’ll have to head over to The Savage Science to get it! (UFC 98 Betting Preview @ The Savage Science)

And don’t miss our LIVE UFC 98 ROUND BY ROUND on Saturday night! It’s the best live fight narrative on the planet and only at The Savage Science.

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

I run my own home game, play at casinos occasionally, and watch way too much tv poker. So I’ve seen and been all of these guys, but especially #1. Some people call ]]>

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

I run my own home game, play at casinos occasionally, and watch way too much tv poker. So I’ve seen and been all of these guys, but especially #1. Some people call that changing it up; I call it a personality disorder. Let’s shuffle up and list!

10 – Math Geek. Knowing the odds for your suck-out hopes is all well and good, but this walking calculator takes it way too far. Eventually, they will own far too many chips thanks to the calculators in their skulls, but take solace that when that day arrives, they’ll still need to use the money they make to pay for sex.

9 – Purist. Any non-poker conversation is an affront to the poker gods, along with any winning suck-out from bad cards or position. (Note that such things are Just Poker when they benefit him, of course.) The purist hasn’t quite gotten the fact that poker, like life, is actually very unfair, seeing how he’s walking around with a working nose and all.

8 – Fake Drunk. Why, he’s betting crazy, has slurred speech and posture, and looks like easy pickings. So why does he have all those chips? Maybe because he’s really not that drunk. (Or finally playing more than super-tight hands.)

7 – Tightass. Folds on nearly everything, whines about the blind size, doesn’t chip in for food or drink, and can’t be bluffed off with anything less than a handgun. Usually older and better than you, and much more likely to be dealt aces.

6 – Narrator. Do you dream of making the final table at a televised tournament, but don’t have the scratch to enter? Well, just sit down with this guy, and try to avoid going on tilt from sheer hatred. My favorite move from this guy is when you bluff him off a pot in 3-way action, and the turn or river completes his hand. Bring headphones.

5 – Condemned. The stack is dwindling, his dog is dying, and every bet looks like something out of an after-school special on the evils of gambling. This player is often accompanied by some hanger-on who is either distraught or furious. Good times!

4 – Morpheus. He knows your hand with such regularity, you might as well be playing with transparent cards. He remembers hands from hours ago. He exudes pure calm and confidence, even if he’s short-stacked. He’s involved in every meaningful hand, and his bluff is never called. Needless to say, you want no part of this guy.

3 – Speed Freak. Every fold, bet or call is made like he’s got a train to catch, regardless of the pot size or game situation. You get the feeling he’d rather be playing online, and he probably is during the breaks.

2 – Mr. Memory. No chance of the deal order getting messed up here – he’s got that down, along with the outcome of hands that didn’t involve him. It’s all pretty intimidating, but don’t be scared — he’ll remember the hand you win much longer than you will.

1 – Loser. Well, let’s see, I’m increasingly middle-aged, wear those middle management clothes that define business casual soulless, and have the hollowed-out eyes that just screams out that I have daughters, multiple mortgages and a stalled career path. Let’s gamble!

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

Where are you on the sliding scale of depravity? See for yourself. And then slide on down the list, secure with the faith that there’s always someone worse than you. Somewhere.

10) Abstinence. Gambling is ]]>

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool.com

Where are you on the sliding scale of depravity? See for yourself. And then slide on down the list, secure with the faith that there’s always someone worse than you. Somewhere.

10) Abstinence. Gambling is clearly a sin and all that. Besides, if you gamble enough, you turn into one of those oxygen tube users at Off-Track Betting. Scary.

9) Recreation. Picking pools is fun, and something that just about everybody does — even those utterly harmless women at the office. Besides, if you refuse, people will think you’re a stick in the mud.

8) Competition. Who’s the best at picking games? Well, it’s got to be you, sport, seeing how those other people have made the dramatically stupid move of thinking the other team will win. Put an embarrassing, non-financial consequence on the table, just to make sure everyone knows you are not really gambling. Nope, not at all.

7) Experimentation. A fantasy league or two can’t hurt anything, could it? It’s not like you’ll start to, you know, root against your favorite team or anything. Come on, everyone’s doing it. You can handle it.

6) Moderation. Hell, after the fantasy league success and your positive trends in those Just For Fun spread picks, it would be a crime to not make a few bucks from your skills. Come on, live a little.

5) Infatuation. Staring down the streaming live stats of your fantasy league players, having a “For Fun” account with an offshore Web site, and the occasional bout of casino entertainment? Why, it just means you’ve arrived. You’re a man of the world. You’re so handling this.

4) Escalation. Why such small bets, or such a limited range? The real money is to be made on over/unders, prop bets, multiple team teasers and bigger odds. Oh, and since ESPN telecasts poker, it must be a sport, so get in on that, definitely. Besides, only chumps pick chalk. Or just one sport. Or six. (Would you look at this WNBA money line? They’re giving away money!)

3) Rationalization. What are you going to do with your winnings? Why, nothing but Good Things, of course. Very, very good things. And you could stop any time. You’re not like the rest of the people in the room. Not at all.

2) Obstinacy. You’ve got a system! It’s definitely working. And don’t mind those temporary setbacks and bad beats. Just part of the game. Be a man!

1) Acceptance. Hi, my name is Shooter, and I’m a gambling degenerate. (Hi, Shooter!) It’s been two days and four hours since my last bet, and I’m putting the over/under on my next wager at 72 hours. Who wants action?